Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4e…1dfc sports 148 markets active 3d ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42,414 (-16%) realized −$42,414 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%69W / 79L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,757per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2,171est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15,811
14 days−$11,608
30 days−$22,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$36,084
other 44% −$7,438
world 0% −$425
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.0% -43.0% 33% 33% -49.3%
≤30d 71 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 48% -23.5%
≤90d 148 -6.8% -15.6% 47% 47% -24.9%
all 148 -6.8% -15.6% 47% 47% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 47% -24.9%
10% -23.7% 47% -32.1%
15% -31.1% 47% -38.7%
20% -37.8% 46% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$2,335) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,419 vs −$1,795 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42,414
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses69 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2,171
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage53d
Avg bet$1,757
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,000 −$4,923 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8,598 −$8,477 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4,797 +$3,657 +76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3,195 −$3,150 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,361 −$4,300 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 11 $1,595 −$1,570 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2,383 +$2,051 +86%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3,603 +$3,497 +97%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,575 −$2,539 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $629 +$636 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $2,385 +$2,223 +93%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,763 +$1,344 +76%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $243 −$240 -99%
Will Ehime FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $141 +$107 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $71 +$69 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 28 $3,045 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5) May 28 $41 +$35 +86%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5 May 28 $760 +$579 +76%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 May 28 $811 +$887 +109%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5,655 −$5,580 -99%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1,997 −$1,970 -99%
Spread: Racing Club (-1.5) May 27 $689 −$677 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 166.5 May 27 $792 −$780 -98%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $2,721 −$1,930 -71%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5) May 27 $5,038 −$2,708 -54%
CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC: O/U 3.5 May 27 $3,717 +$3,908 +105%
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) May 26 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $5,072 +$4,543 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 25 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 25 $2,829 −$2,790 -99%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to Score May 25 $415 +$317 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $670 +$705 +105%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1,017 +$1,308 +129%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5) May 25 $2,129 +$2,066 +97%
AS Roma leading at halftime? May 25 $78 +$86 +109%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6,475 −$167 -3%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $6,083 −$5,990 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,028 −$1,999 -99%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $629 +$689 +109%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5,348 +$4,603 +86%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $6,489 +$5,401 +83%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,240 −$1,220 -98%
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $669 +$576 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $4,006 +$3,447 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4,985 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $56 2d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $483 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $2,028 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $3,042 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $3,044 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,470 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3,323 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $102 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $8 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3,187 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $4,361 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 47¢ $356 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,229 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $355 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $2,028 5d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $7 6d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $2,568 6d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 50¢ $1,979 6d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 50¢ $1,624 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $629 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,385 8d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $669 10d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,094 10d
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 54¢ $243 16d
Will Ehime FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 56¢ $141 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records