Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4e…6c9c crypto 547 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$961 (-4%) realized −$961 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%424W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$15
14 days+$28
30 days−$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,157
sports 7% −$41
weather 0% −$29
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +0.6% -8.9% 98% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 304 -1.0% -10.4% 91% 6% -12.0%
≤90d 547 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 16% -13.7%
all 547 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 16% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 16% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 9% -22.0%
15% -26.7% 7% -29.5%
20% -33.9% 4% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$25 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$961
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses424 / 123
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)547 / 547
History coverage85d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 547 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $260 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $260 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $260 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $260 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $260 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $260 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $230 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $260 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $260 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $260 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $260 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $260 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $260 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $230 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $230 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $230 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $230 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $230 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $230 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $230 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $230 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $230 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $230 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2070 history records