Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4e…8f3e sports 527 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-1%) realized −$119 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%239W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$614
7 days−$418
14 days−$520
30 days−$1,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$194
other 28% −$291
crypto 3% −$20
world 2% −$54
politics 1% −$25
culture 1% +$23
finance 1% −$42
economics 0% −$12
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -31.1% -37.7% 23% 21% -22.9%
≤30d 298 -39.4% -45.2% 25% 24% -26.0%
≤90d 414 -15.2% -23.3% 38% 37% -20.2%
all 505 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 44% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 44% -12.1%
10% -22.6% 39% -20.5%
15% -30.1% 34% -28.2%
20% -36.9% 26% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses239 / 266
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions22
Markets (closed)505 / 527
History coverage133d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $44 $77 +$33 (+74%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+37%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 61¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 57¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) DR Congo 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 64¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+48%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $71 −$3 -4%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$1 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 −$2 -6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -15%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $81 +$43 +53%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 22 $62 −$22 -35%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$5 -17%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 −$2 -3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 $0 -0%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$96 +188%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $82 −$48 -59%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$5 -13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$3 -13%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$89 +174%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$107 +105%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $76 −$59 -77%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 36¢ $19 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $49 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 67¢ $51 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $31 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $51 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $51 8h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $51 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 9¢ $9 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $74 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $25 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $19 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $31 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $68 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 39¢ $50 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 22¢ $51 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.46 · official $581.46 (match) · 1255 history records