Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8E 0x8e4f…9ddb sports 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+5%) realized +$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%78W / 128L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$16
14 days+$22
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +19.2% +7.8% 40% 40% +7.7%
≤30d 172 +11.5% +0.8% 38% 38% +0.8%
≤90d 206 +8.4% -1.9% 38% 38% -6.4%
all 206 +8.4% -1.9% 38% 38% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 38% -6.4%
10% -11.3% 33% -15.4%
15% -19.9% 33% -23.6%
20% -27.7% 33% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses78 / 128
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)206 / 208
History coverage38d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 44¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 36¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $3 +$5 +180%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 −$2 -76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $3 +$4 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 +$4 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 −$2 -73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $3 +$4 +140%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $3 −$2 -69%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 −$2 -72%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3 +$4 +129%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$2 -68%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 −$2 -75%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 −$2 -75%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 +$4 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $3 +$4 +152%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $3 +$4 +129%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$1 -48%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3 −$1 -34%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $3 +$4 +140%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $3 −$2 -73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $3 −$2 -80%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $3 −$2 -74%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $3 −$2 -73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $3 −$2 -80%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $3 +$5 +183%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $3 −$2 -70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $3 −$2 -80%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $3 −$2 -72%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $3 −$2 -69%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $3 $0 -6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $3 −$2 -80%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $3 −$2 -85%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $3 +$4 +134%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $3 −$2 -87%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $3 +$4 +129%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $3 −$1 -27%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $3 −$1 -50%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $3 +$4 +124%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $3 −$2 -78%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $3 −$2 -80%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $3 −$2 -74%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $3 −$2 -69%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $3 +$4 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $3 44m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $3 28h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $3 29h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $3 30h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $3 31h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 11¢ $1 43h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $3 45h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 10¢ $1 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $3 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 11¢ $1 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 13¢ $1 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $3 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $3 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 12¢ $1 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 41¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $3 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $3 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 42¢ $3 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $3 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $3 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 13¢ $1 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $3 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 11¢ $1 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 11¢ $1 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $3 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.34 · official $4.34 (match) · 417 history records