Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e53…5fcc other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
other 30% −$8
sports 8% −$35
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 19 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 5% -9.2%
all 45 -3.9% -13.0% 22% 2% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 2% -12.2%
10% -21.4% 0% -20.6%
15% -29.0% 0% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage301d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $45 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $90 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $58 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $12 $0 -3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 21 Aug 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 22 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $51 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $51 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $29 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $18 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $47 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $36 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $51 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.08 · official $45.64 (match) · 171 history records