Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8E 0x8e58…fb5a sports 448 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$962 (-3%) realized −$964 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%241W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$62
14 days−$38
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$927
other 7% −$115
world 1% −$29
politics 1% +$41
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.0% 80% 40% +5.7%
≤90d 277 -1.9% -11.2% 58% 55% -9.0%
all 445 -6.9% -15.8% 54% 51% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 51% -12.6%
10% -23.8% 47% -21.0%
15% -31.2% 41% -28.6%
20% -37.9% 33% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$55 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$964
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses241 / 204
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions3
Markets (closed)445 / 448
History coverage98d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 83¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+5%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Over 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $88 +$62 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $50 +$2 +5%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $32 +$1 +4%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 May 29 $1,210 +$284 +23%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $90 +$15 +17%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? May 06 $8 +$2 +33%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 06 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? May 06 $35 +$13 +37%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 06 $72 +$75 +104%
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 21 $8 +$3 +37%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? Apr 21 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? Apr 21 $78 +$59 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $92 +$64 +70%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in Apr 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? Apr 11 $17 +$14 +82%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? Apr 11 $72 +$54 +76%
Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 10 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO1) - Prime Leag Apr 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Apr 10 $44 +$29 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 10 $49 +$34 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 10 $40 +$47 +119%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 10 $90 +$51 +57%
Valorant: M80 vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Apr 10 $97 +$63 +65%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5 Apr 08 $55 −$54 -98%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Apr 08 $110 −$109 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 07 $89 −$88 -99%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs DNSTY (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 1 Apr 07 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: 7REX vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season Apr 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5 Apr 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 07 $43 −$42 -99%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 07 $71 −$69 -98%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Apr 07 $102 −$101 -99%
76ers vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5 Apr 07 $22 +$27 +124%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 07 $26 +$31 +119%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North Amer Apr 07 $50 +$11 +21%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 07 $79 +$71 +90%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Apr 07 $87 +$69 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Apr 07 $79 +$86 +109%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $221 +$75 +34%
Sarasota: Daniil Glinka vs J.J. Wolf Apr 06 $24 −$24 -99%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs INTZ e-Sports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular S Apr 06 $63 −$62 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 06 $95 −$94 -99%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 06 $78 +$92 +119%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 06 $83 +$87 +105%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 06 $225 +$94 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $51 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $101 7d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 11d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 80¢ $32 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 80¢ $241 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 95¢ $34 23d
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 95¢ $35 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 90¢ $180 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 96¢ $187 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 98¢ $5 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 92¢ $185 23d
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY No 95¢ $15 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 65¢ $328 23d
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY No 97¢ $16 23d
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 96¢ $15 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 95¢ $17 23d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 77¢ $2 46d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 77¢ $59 46d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 77¢ $12 46d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 77¢ $5 46d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $92 71d
Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY Team Envy 62¢ $35 72d
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO1) - Prime Leag BUY Eintracht Frankfurt 47¢ $61 72d
Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY Team Envy 62¢ $19 72d
Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY Team Envy 62¢ $35 72d
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5 BUY Under 45¢ $55 74d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha BUY Team Liquid 63¢ $90 74d
Qingdao Eagles vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers BUY Qingdao Eagles 78¢ $110 74d
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $89 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.70 · official $158.70 (match) · 937 history records