Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e5c…a68a
world · 87 markets active 10d ago
0.0score
−$16,086 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,324 · open −$4,801
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$321,526
Realized−$11,324
Unrealized−$4,801
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses43 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions28
Markets (closed)60 / 87
History coverage51d
Avg bet$8,737
Trades / day65.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 28 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$11,237
30 days+$14,225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 23¢ $107,998 $75,850 −$32,148 (-30%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 81¢ $51,277 $60,685 +$9,408 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $31,736 $34,761 +$3,025 (+10%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 85¢ 97¢ $29,660 $33,876 +$4,216 (+14%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $21,783 $24,328 +$2,545 (+12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 93¢ $15,425 $17,498 +$2,073 (+13%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 66¢ 76¢ $14,978 $17,466 +$2,488 (+17%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 65¢ 75¢ $12,361 $14,120 +$1,760 (+14%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $4,781 $5,174 +$393 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $4,581 $4,387 −$194 (-4%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $3,568 $4,301 +$733 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4,171 $4,237 +$66 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $1,746 $2,785 +$1,040 (+60%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,872 $2,704 −$168 (-6%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 74¢ 95¢ $2,004 $2,586 +$581 (+29%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $2,242 $2,371 +$130 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2,282 $2,269 −$13 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2,231 $2,192 −$39 (-2%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 77¢ $1,873 $2,190 +$317 (+17%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 62¢ $1,520 $1,669 +$149 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,359 $1,346 −$13 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $848 $1,150 +$302 (+36%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? No 87¢ 94¢ $1,007 $1,084 +$77 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 70¢ 70¢ $785 $789 +$4 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? No 72¢ 90¢ $560 $696 +$136 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? Jun 01 $173 +$47 +27%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? Jun 01 $363 +$78 +22%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $750 +$85 +11%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? Jun 01 $1,081 +$121 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $20,332 +$2,763 +14%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? Jun 01 $1,003 +$293 +29%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $11,000 +$1,331 +12%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? Jun 01 $440 +$66 +15%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? Jun 01 $433 +$62 +14%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31? Jun 01 $800 +$176 +22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $60,653 +$6,226 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $2,391 +$598 +25%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 22 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? May 19 $1,100 +$60 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 17 $33,779 +$1,220 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $4,644 +$756 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,648 +$694 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $5,725 +$345 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $35,517 −$35,478 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $13,872 −$13,855 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $1,506 −$312 -21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 04 $1,041 −$492 -47%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 01 $4,855 +$34 +1%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 01 $100 −$100 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 01 $5,158 +$210 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $2,500 +$833 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $34,483 +$5,848 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $9,142 +$867 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $5,000 +$278 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $8,800 +$469 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,005 +$495 +49%
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $1,646 −$1,617 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $5,689 −$2,255 -40%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Apr 29 $800 +$10 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $1,320 +$180 +14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $75,631 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $1,365 +$135 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $2,500 +$105 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $1,425 +$75 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 26 $759 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $4,600 +$1,954 +42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $10,787 +$6,412 +59%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $11,300 +$248 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $3,997 +$768 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $64,853 +$14,291 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $10,069 +$1,836 +18%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,740 −$428 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $10,665 −$989 -9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $10,000 +$37 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 72% +$14,695
other 15% −$31,535
politics 9% +$9,310
finance 2% −$9,100
sports 1% +$213
crypto 0% +$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $541 18d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $484 18d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 18d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $3,022 20d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 69¢ $196 22d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $185 22d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $139 24d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $128 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $53 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $47 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $37 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $24 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $26 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $29 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $40 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $32 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $42 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $527 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $9 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $165 24d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1,032 24d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $21 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $756 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $2 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $23 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $5 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $11 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $3,500 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 +2.9% -6.9% 89% 72% -0.6%
≤90d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 72% 40% -11.4%
all 60 -0.2% -9.7% 72% 40% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 40% -11.4%
10% -18.4% 13% -19.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 7% -27.6%
20% -33.5% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321,526.50 · official $321,536.60 (match) · 3500 history records