Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8E 0x8e5c…2ba2 sports 867 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$730 (+1%) realized +$737 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%597W / 263L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$223
7 days+$339
14 days+$460
30 days+$788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$44
crypto 14% +$343
other 11% +$37
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 50% +5.8%
≤30d 206 -0.1% -9.6% 66% 58% -3.3%
≤90d 857 +3.1% -6.7% 69% 56% -8.7%
all 860 +3.5% -6.4% 69% 56% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 56% -8.7%
10% -15.3% 37% -17.4%
15% -23.5% 23% -25.4%
20% -31.0% 13% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$37 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized+$737
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses597 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions7
Markets (closed)860 / 867
History coverage91d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 860 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$25 +42%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$37 -61%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $91 +$56 +62%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$40 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $84 +$33 +40%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 +$40 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$24 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $126 +$314 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$66 -66%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $27 −$25 -93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $202 +$88 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $76 −$52 -69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 −$57 -63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$105 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $23 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 52¢ $50 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $25 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $20 7h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 36h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $61 37h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 72¢ $20 39h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 39h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $91 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 73¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.09 · official $357.11 (match) · 1847 history records