Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8e62…fd00 sports 1376 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,475 (-6%) realized −$1,481 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%598W / 773L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$664
14 days−$1,251
30 days−$1,932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,197
other 20% −$506
crypto 0% −$46
world 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 41% -36.7%
≤30d 641 -16.9% -24.8% 44% 44% -22.6%
≤90d 1371 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 42% -15.8%
all 1371 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 42% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 42% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 39% -23.8%
15% -35.0% 35% -31.2%
20% -41.4% 29% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$1,481
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses598 / 773
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1371 / 1376
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 42¢ 100¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+138%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$10 +68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $20 +$26 +128%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 16 $8 −$7 -83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $7 +$5 +64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 +$42 +59%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +178%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$54 +249%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Cattolica: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Matej Dodig Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 14 $21 −$2 -8%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 14 $20 −$16 -78%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 27¢ $5 3h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 60¢ $5 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $4 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 25h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 41¢ $6 25h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $40 25h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 100¢ $46 25h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 65¢ $16 29h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 43¢ $10 29h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Zsombor Piros 14¢ $1 29h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 70¢ $5 29h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 43¢ $10 30h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $5 30h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 55¢ $5 30h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 45¢ $5 30h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $20 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.56 · official $59.56 (match) · 3500 history records