Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8e63…6fbb sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$111 (+14%) realized +$110 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$27
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$24
world 8% +$126
other 7% −$1
finance 6% −$12
politics 6% −$6
tech 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 38% -15.3%
≤30d 48 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 50% +1.3%
≤90d 48 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 50% +1.3%
all 48 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 50% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% +1.3%
10% -17.0% 42% -8.4%
15% -25.0% 33% -17.3%
20% -32.3% 27% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage25d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of Jun 10 $15 $0 -3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $15 −$9 -61%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $20 +$16 +78%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $15 +$18 +117%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $15 +$3 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $15 +$5 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $15 +$17 +107%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 05 $16 −$6 -37%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $15 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $15 +$4 +23%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $15 +$7 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 03 $16 −$3 -17%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 03 $15 +$13 +84%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $15 +$21 +137%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $15 +$13 +84%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 165.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $15 −$1 -9%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $15 +$6 +40%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 30 $15 +$13 +84%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 28 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $36 −$5 -15%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $15 −$1 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 26 $15 +$6 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $15 +$5 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $62 +$126 +204%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 May 22 $5 +$5 +91%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 21 $5 +$4 +71%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $5 +$6 +116%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $5 +$10 +194%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm May 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $17 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $21 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $21 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $20 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of SELL Yes 90¢ $15 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 22¢ $6 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 53¢ $15 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $20 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $34 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 88¢ $15 6d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of BUY Yes 90¢ $15 9d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $15 9d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $15 9d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli BUY Alessandro Costa 82¢ $15 9d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig BUY Ketlen Souza 75¢ $15 9d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Édgar Cháirez 47¢ $15 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 86¢ $15 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes $13 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 80¢ $15 10d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $15 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 11d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $15 11d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 61¢ $15 12d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $15 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $15 12d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $15 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.70 · official $81.70 (match) · 104 history records