Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e64…2604 other 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$29 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%66W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$28
14 days−$122
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$16
other 30% +$26
crypto 8% −$80
world 3% −$20
sports 3% +$12
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 33% +28.9%
≤30d 52 +8.3% -2.0% 35% 29% -6.4%
≤90d 161 -14.0% -22.2% 26% 21% -19.9%
all 215 +11.4% +0.8% 31% 27% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 27% -12.8%
10% -8.8% 25% -21.1%
15% -17.6% 23% -28.8%
20% -25.7% 21% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses66 / 149
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)215 / 217
History coverage156d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$17 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$17 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$14 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $17 −$9 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $81 −$81 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $14 −$4 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 +$43 +281%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $6 +$7 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $9 +$28 +313%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $7 +$22 +341%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $5 +$22 +411%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $3 +$6 +213%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $6 +$13 +203%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $9 +$41 +454%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.45 · official $5.45 (match) · 745 history records