Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e65…cfb7 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-9%) realized −$57 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$87
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$71
other 36% −$13
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.6% -24.5% 47% 41% -27.5%
≤30d 18 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 39% -29.6%
≤90d 18 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 39% -29.6%
all 18 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 39% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 39% -29.6%
10% -35.5% 22% -36.3%
15% -41.8% 22% -42.4%
20% -47.5% 17% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage9d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 99¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 78¢ 85¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $61 −$32 -53%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $41 −$22 -54%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$6 +12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$6 +20%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$34 -66%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -78%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 −$15 -36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$4 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 12m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 13m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 19¢ $7 14m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 16m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 34¢ $12 28m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 57m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $104 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $29 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $27 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 23h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 23h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 23h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 43h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 44h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 53¢ $5 44h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 30¢ $3 44h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 45h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 43¢ $10 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 78¢ $22 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 35¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.79 · official $85.79 (match) · 50 history records