Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e66…9bdf politics 133 markets active 3d ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$3
other 38% −$3
sports 9% −$68
tech 6% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -5.2% -14.2% 8% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 2% -10.6%
10% -22.4% 2% -19.2%
15% -29.9% 2% -27.0%
20% -36.8% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage113d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $125 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $117 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $67 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 21 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 11d
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 17d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $11 17d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 17d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 18d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 20d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 22d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 23d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $52 23d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $52 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 24d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 25d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 26d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.98 · official $11.98 (match) · 350 history records