Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e69…553a sports 482 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$445 (-2%) realized −$382 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%266W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$238
7 days+$140
14 days−$127
30 days−$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$358
other 5% −$320
world 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +0.1% -9.4% 49% 43% -7.4%
≤30d 471 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 49% -11.8%
≤90d 471 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 49% -11.8%
all 471 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 49% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 49% -11.8%
10% -19.1% 37% -20.3%
15% -26.9% 29% -28.0%
20% -34.0% 23% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$39 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$382
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses266 / 205
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions11
Markets (closed)471 / 482
History coverage30d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 87¢ 100¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 74¢ 78¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nuria Sarganella Verdu vs Ana Victoria Gobbi Monllau Nuria Sarganella Verdu 64¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 52¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
ITF Taipei: Mao Mushika vs Yu-Chen Lin Mao Mushika 67¢ 57¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki Takuya Kumasaka 75¢ 45¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Aoyama/Chan 57¢ 52¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
ITF Klosters: Henry Bernet vs Jan Sebesta Henry Bernet 90¢ 94¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Patricia Georgiana Goina 92¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Voracek (-1.5) vs Schnyder (+1.5) Voracek 76¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$4 -9%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $12 +$7 +57%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $51 +$166 +325%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $51 −$3 -5%
Ben Shelton vs. Nick Kyrgios: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$11 -22%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Alastair Gray vs. Tristan Schoolkate: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Ignacio Buse vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$1 -3%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $51 +$2 +5%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $40 +$14 +36%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $50 +$10 +20%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $50 +$14 +27%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Galarneau (-1.5) vs Maestrelli (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Paul vs. Munar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
Tommy Paul vs. Jaume Munar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $51 −$8 -15%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $51 +$37 +73%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 14 $50 +$11 +23%
Blockx vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $51 +$65 +129%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 90¢ $50 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 82¢ $50 1h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 87¢ $50 1h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 90¢ $50 2h
Set Handicap: Voracek (-1.5) vs Schnyder (+1.5) BUY Voracek 76¢ $50 8h
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa BUY Mayuka Aikawa 92¢ $11 9h
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 63¢ $12 14h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $26 16h
ITF Klosters: Henry Bernet vs Jan Sebesta BUY Henry Bernet 90¢ $12 16h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 23¢ $51 17h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) BUY Pieri 51¢ $51 20h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 54¢ $51 20h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 52¢ $51 20h
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki BUY Takuya Kumasaka 75¢ $50 20h
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Dong Ju Kim 57¢ $51 21h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 51¢ $51 21h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nuria Sarganella Verdu vs Ana Victoria Gobbi M BUY Nuria Sarganella Verdu 64¢ $51 23h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 65¢ $53 23h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina BUY Patricia Georgiana Goina 92¢ $4 25h
ITF Taipei: Mao Mushika vs Yu-Chen Lin BUY Mao Mushika 67¢ $50 25h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Shintaro Imai 73¢ $40 27h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 52¢ $51 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena BUY Odeta Panasa 55¢ $51 29h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 83¢ $50 29h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 78¢ $50 31h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 70¢ $50 31h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 61¢ $51 34h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 80¢ $50 34h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 68¢ $50 34h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Daniel Jade 87¢ $50 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.52 · official $379.73 (match) · 825 history records