Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8e6a…2577 crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,507 (-12%) realized −$1,472 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate78%137W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$25
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$60
crypto 16% −$1,506
politics 0% +$4
world 0% +$3
sports 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -37.2% -43.2% 14% 14% -9.8%
≤90d 89 -23.4% -30.7% 60% 6% -21.0%
all 175 -2.9% -12.2% 78% 5% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 5% -20.4%
10% -20.6% 5% -28.0%
15% -28.2% 5% -35.0%
20% -35.3% 3% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$42 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$1,472
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses137 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)175 / 202
History coverage134d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 50¢ 94¢ $36 $67 +$31 (+87%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $36 $5 −$31 (-87%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,002 −$5 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,141 −$4 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,144 −$5 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,151 −$5 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,153 −$4 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 01 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $1 +$2 +245%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 09 $2 +$6 +317%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1,996 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2,002 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,137 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,141 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,139 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,144 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,147 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,151 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,149 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,153 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in BUY 5¢ $1 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 19d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $2 21d
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 24d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 57¢ $2 24d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 29d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 29d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 29d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36d
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 38d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 38d
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 40d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40d
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.50 · official $106.50 (match) · 457 history records