Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e6c…c24b crypto 40 markets active 17h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$15,014 (+29%) realized +$15,014 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +132% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,306per market
Trades / day62.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$3,868
14 days+$11,496
30 days+$14,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14,037
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+109.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 43% +11.4%
≤30d 40 +131.8% +109.7% 55% 55% +13.4%
≤90d 40 +131.8% +109.7% 55% 55% +13.4%
all 40 +131.8% +109.7% 55% 55% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +109.7% 55% +13.4%
10% +89.7% 55% +2.6%
15% ← realistic here +71.3% 55% -7.3%
20% +54.5% 55% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +132% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,500) neutral
Persistence
early +253% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,492 vs −$1,044 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$15,014
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1,306
Trades / day62.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $866 −$822 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $807 −$460 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $964 +$2,050 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $955 −$903 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $350 −$336 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $1,360 +$1,301 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $977 +$1,572 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $2,208 −$2,127 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $1,115 −$1,072 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $1,459 +$1,452 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $3,682 +$2,712 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $1,476 +$1,181 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $347 −$330 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $370 −$349 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $1,024 +$1,240 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $416 +$548 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $1,061 +$3,086 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $563 −$553 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $2,440 −$2,403 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $3,548 +$1,690 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $1,002 −$960 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $749 −$721 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $813 +$1,614 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $1,517 −$1,500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $915 +$1,041 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $330 +$2,263 +686%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $339 −$339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2,000 +$2,802 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $360 +$223 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1,775 +$1,698 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $747 +$706 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $336 −$320 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1,045 +$1,427 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2,045 −$1,969 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $368 +$388 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3,116 +$1,807 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $3,546 −$3,452 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $3,546 +$1,036 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1,511 +$996 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $244 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $622 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $213 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $134 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $57 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $63 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $56 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $362 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $248 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $51 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $54 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $355 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $27 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $520 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $964 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.09 · official $0.00 · 1010 history records