Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e6e…e424 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$12
politics 28% −$9
sports 11% +$6
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 107 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage132d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $204 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $201 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $371 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $178 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $407 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $433 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $168 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $463 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $227 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 23h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 20d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $26 21d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 24d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $212 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 25d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 26d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $197 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $197 28d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 28d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 29d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $223 30d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $223 30d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $233 30d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $233 31d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 31d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $179 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $179 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records