Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e71…c0b8 politics 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 665d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$11
other 22% −$4
economics 11% −$2
sports 2% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -1.8% -11.2% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

665d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage665d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo visit Ukraine first? Nov 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jared Goff win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Supreme Court vacancy in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Deshaun Watson suspended for personal misconduct? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Matt Dolan be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Maxx Crosby win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Christian Braun win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump get more votes than 2020? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 10 $0 $0 -3%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Miami (FL) win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Dexter Lawrence win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend? Nov 18 $0 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 12h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $8 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 15d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 28d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 33d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 42d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 45d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 46d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $58 70d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $58 71d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 75d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 76d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 95d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 96d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 96d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 97d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 101d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 101d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 101d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $58 103d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $58 104d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $58 105d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $58 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records