Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e77…c4f3
crypto · 303 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$49,738 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66,475 · open +$21,449
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$256,245
Realized−$66,475
Unrealized+$21,449
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses250 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions56
Markets (closed)299 / 303
History coverage100d
Avg bet$5,691
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 56 History 299 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62,207
7 days−$62,036
14 days−$39,419
30 days−$101,998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 86¢ $21,449 $25,840 +$4,391 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 65¢ 78¢ $19,608 $23,250 +$3,642 (+19%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $17,967 $19,590 +$1,623 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $13,027 $14,730 +$1,703 (+13%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $12,591 $14,662 +$2,071 (+16%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 52¢ 79¢ $6,683 $10,192 +$3,509 (+53%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $8,650 $9,880 +$1,230 (+14%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $8,500 $8,350 −$150 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 76¢ $8,200 $7,574 −$626 (-8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $6,200 $6,712 +$513 (+8%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 100¢ $4,855 $4,988 +$132 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $4,650 $4,972 +$322 (+7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $4,900 $4,962 +$62 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $4,150 $4,960 +$810 (+20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,870 $4,952 +$82 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 50¢ $6,650 $4,950 −$1,700 (-26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 73¢ 99¢ $3,650 $4,942 +$1,292 (+35%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 66¢ 98¢ $3,300 $4,922 +$1,622 (+49%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $4,300 $4,890 +$590 (+14%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $4,750 $4,850 +$100 (+2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 97¢ $4,830 $4,850 +$20 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,640 $4,692 +$52 (+1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 92¢ $3,100 $4,625 +$1,525 (+49%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $3,950 $4,625 +$675 (+17%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 90¢ $4,350 $4,525 +$175 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,830 −$2,830 -100%
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 14 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 December 1-7? Jun 14 $620 −$620 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 14 $2,574 −$2,574 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 14 $3,489 −$3,489 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 14 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7? Jun 14 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Jun 14 $340 −$340 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,730 −$4,730 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,870 −$1,870 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 14 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7? Jun 14 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jun 14 $20 −$827 -4091%
Will Tyler Robinson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 14 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 14 $3,950 −$3,950 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jun 14 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 1-7? Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 14 $5,118 −$5,118 -100%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 14 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 14 $119 −$338 -283%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in February? Jun 14 $2,919 −$2,919 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Jun 14 $803 −$803 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 1-7? Jun 14 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 December 1-7? Jun 14 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 14 $4,574 −$4,574 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 14 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $560 −$560 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $4,835 +$135 +3%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $290 +$4 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4,905 +$75 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $2,824 +$55 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $2,457 +$37 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $2,225 +$275 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $94,581 +$9,986 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $4,434 +$566 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,600 +$1,400 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $45,772 +$4,229 +9%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $817 +$144 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3,700 +$1,300 +35%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,075 +$925 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,300 +$700 +16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $4,667 +$334 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $14,250 +$750 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $17,990 +$2,009 +11%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 27 $2,460 +$27 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 27 $598 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% −$35,583
crypto 21% +$32,025
finance 9% +$10,176
other 6% +$5,678
economics 4% +$6,249
sports 2% −$4,247
politics 2% +$3,016
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4,970 36h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $4,970 46h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2,001 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4,930 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $294 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4,980 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $4,600 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2,944 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4,940 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2,279 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 5d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $8,301 5d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $199 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -85.5% -86.8% 14% 0% -81.5%
≤30d 71 -48.3% -53.2% 46% 20% -27.7%
≤90d 217 -14.2% -22.4% 78% 24% -16.2%
all 299 -3.7% -12.8% 84% 23% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 23% -13.4%
10% -21.2% 8% -21.7%
15% ← realistic here -28.8% 4% -29.3%
20% -35.8% 3% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256,245.29 · official $256,377.68 (match) · 3500 history records