Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e78…75dc other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3
other 30% $0
politics 6% +$1
economics 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
weather 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 33 +1.1% -8.6% 36% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage471d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $82 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $67 −$3 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 +11%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 +20%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Giants draft Mason Graham? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 5? Apr 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 04 $14 $0 +1%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $13 +$1 +7%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 4m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 6h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $38 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records