Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8E 0x8e79…2d68 sports 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$2,913 (-10%) realized −$2,837 · open −$76
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%127W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$447
7 days+$1,317
14 days+$1,324
30 days+$545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$2,549
other 9% −$61
world 4% +$68
culture 1% −$434
politics 1% −$300
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +123.1% +101.8% 64% 64% +89.3%
≤30d 33 +56.7% +41.8% 58% 58% +8.0%
≤90d 87 +54.7% +40.0% 53% 53% +0.2%
all 299 +11.2% +0.6% 42% 41% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 41% -20.1%
10% -9.0% 40% -27.7%
15% -17.8% 37% -34.7%
20% -25.8% 30% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$93 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$2,837
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses127 / 172
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions6
Markets (closed)299 / 305
History coverage255d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 100¢ $50 $98 +$48 (+96%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 10¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$128 +126%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$192 +188%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$220 +216%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 +$199 +244%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$134 +262%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$452 +880%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$24 +92%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $51 +$40 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$9 +173%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $51 +$99 +194%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $61 −$60 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $101 +$54 +53%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $51 +$22 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$88 +87%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $51 +$21 +41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $400 +$530 +132%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$57 +572%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 16 $28 −$27 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $19 +$9 +47%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $13 +$6 +46%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $9 +$4 +48%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 13 $1 +$7 +508%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $100 −$97 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $96 +$105 +109%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Apr 08 $100 −$4 -4%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $43 −$42 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $28 +$15 +56%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $100 −$98 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $180 −$127 -71%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $130 +$45 +34%
Suns vs. Magic: O/U 223.5 Apr 01 $50 +$39 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $230 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $203 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 81¢ $503 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $51 6d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $61 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $50 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.43 · official $424.43 (match) · 696 history records