Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e7b…e750 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-11%) realized −$1 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2
politics 9% −$4
other 4% −$1
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 31% -11.3%
≤30d 39 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 31% -11.3%
≤90d 39 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 31% -11.3%
all 39 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 31% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 31% -11.3%
10% -22.3% 18% -19.8%
15% -29.9% 18% -27.6%
20% -36.7% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 11¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$7 +676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +224%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.70 · official $1.70 (match) · 73 history records