Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e7d…b30e crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$234 (-10%) realized −$231 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$341
tech 21% $0
other 13% $0
weather 10% −$4
world 6% −$1
finance 5% $0
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -58.7% -62.7% 17% 17% -47.7%
≤90d 6 -58.7% -62.7% 17% 17% -47.7%
all 6 -58.7% -62.7% 17% 17% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.7% 17% -47.7%
10% -66.2% 17% -52.7%
15% -69.5% 17% -57.3%
20% -72.5% 17% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$93 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,612
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)6 / 30
History coverage26d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 −$0 (-0%)
Will T1 make a roster change before July? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 4? No 49¢ 52¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 29? No 80¢ 80¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? No 32¢ 25¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 30? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+27%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 29? No 85¢ 84¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $39 −$37 -96%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 08 $124 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 06 $231 +$122 +53%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $346 −$346 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will T1 make a roster change before July? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 80¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? BUY No 41¢ $26 1h
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will T1 make a roster change before July? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 79¢ $25 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? BUY No 26¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 29? BUY No 85¢ $25 1h
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will T1 make a roster change before July? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 4? BUY No 49¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,611.92 · official $1,611.93 (match) · 110 history records