Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e80…d31c crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$191 (+23%) realized +$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.1% +2.3% 38% 38% -27.9%
≤30d 13 +13.1% +2.3% 38% 38% -27.9%
≤90d 13 +13.1% +2.3% 38% 38% -27.9%
all 13 +13.1% +2.3% 38% 38% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 38% -27.9%
10% -7.5% 38% -34.8%
15% -16.4% 38% -41.1%
20% -24.6% 38% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +119% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$66 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$105 +396%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$55 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records