Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e82…5fad
crypto · 598 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,108 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,220 · open +$114
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,026
Realized−$1,220
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses227 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)579 / 598
History coverage361d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 19 History 579 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$15
14 days+$25
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 64¢ 81¢ $502 $640 +$137 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 52¢ $248 $206 −$42 (-17%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 15¢ 80¢ $7 $40 +$32 (+441%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 57¢ 66¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+17%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 76¢ 75¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $23 $12 −$12 (-50%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 53¢ 43¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 20¢ 22¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Canada's population Up or Down this year? Up 53¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? No 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 28? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with South Korean president on August 25? No 78¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? No 78¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 12 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Jun 08 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $162 +$35 +22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 07 $24 −$16 -67%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 05 $12 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -94%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1 +$9 +809%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $5 +$5 +89%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $2 +$8 +550%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $60 −$12 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +62%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $377 +$112 +30%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? May 23 $15 +$12 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 22 $60 −$10 -17%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in c May 22 $21 +$8 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 22 $29 −$1 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 21 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Colorado Avalanche vs Carolina Hurricanes be the 2026 Stanley Cup May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET May 20 $5 +$5 +112%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? May 14 $9 −$3 -33%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $42 +$8 +19%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tim Cook attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $43 +$2 +5%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $14 +$6 +48%
Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $14 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2PM ET May 13 $5 +$5 +86%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 13 $46 −$15 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 25% −$364
crypto 17% −$505
politics 14% +$19
tech 14% −$21
world 11% −$151
other 10% −$300
sports 7% +$352
culture 1% −$48
economics 1% −$52
finance 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $24 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $32 15h
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 55¢ $32 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $40 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $2 2d
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $89 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 3d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 3d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? BUY Anthropic 76¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.4% -30.7% 45% 45% -6.1%
≤30d 50 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 36% -4.8%
≤90d 109 -14.9% -23.0% 39% 35% -7.3%
all 579 -14.4% -22.5% 39% 34% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 34% -13.6%
10% -29.9% 30% -21.9%
15% -36.7% 26% -29.4%
20% -42.9% 21% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,026.04 · official $1,026.12 (match) · 2273 history records