Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8E 0x8e83…e1a8 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$46
sports 19% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.7% -24.7% 50% 50% +15.3%
≤30d 4 -16.7% -24.7% 50% 50% +15.3%
≤90d 4 -16.7% -24.7% 50% 50% +15.3%
all 4 -16.7% -24.7% 50% 50% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 50% +15.3%
10% -31.9% 50% +4.3%
15% -38.5% 50% -5.8%
20% -44.5% 50% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Under 37¢ 36¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 +$42 +76%
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$26 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $69 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $28 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 2h
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $55 23h
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $21 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $18 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.43 · official $92.43 (match) · 9 history records