Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e83…4500 world 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 19% −$1
crypto 13% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 11% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 38 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage273d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $36 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $47 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Sep 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $12 $0 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $4 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $15 11m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $20 11m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $29 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $35 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $34 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $2 22h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $35 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $1 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $36 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $39 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $39 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.90 · official $34.90 (match) · 127 history records