Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e83…bdd4 other 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$699 (+1%) realized +$626 · open +$73
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%330W / 25L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$4,253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$186
14 days+$265
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$430
other 26% +$522
politics 13% +$17
sports 10% −$41
economics 7% −$309
crypto 6% +$41
tech 6% +$80
finance 1% +$18
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 43 -0.8% -10.3% 98% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 105 -1.4% -10.8% 96% 0% -9.2%
all 355 -0.7% -10.1% 93% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.0%
10% -18.7% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$76 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$4,253
Realized+$626
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses330 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)355 / 364
History coverage173d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1,899 $1,929 +$29 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $653 $653 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Japan 95¢ 100¢ $474 $501 +$27 (+6%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 97¢ 100¢ $485 $500 +$15 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $406 $407 +$1 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $292 +$9 +3%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,385 +$2 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $161 +$2 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,119 +$19 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $1,896 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $418 +$4 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $767 +$31 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4,097 +$106 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $3,447 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $641 +$7 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2,640 +$10 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $263 +$3 +1%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $215 +$6 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $238 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,145 +$39 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $474 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $780 +$11 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,013 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $93 +$2 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,893 +$21 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,210 +$49 +2%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $277 +$2 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $189 +$1 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $44 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $198 +$11 +6%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $199 +$1 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? Jun 01 $683 +$2 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $1,279 +$9 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $461 +$5 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $297 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $147 +$3 +2%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 27 $159 −$159 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $821 +$42 +5%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $289 +$11 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $710 +$28 +4%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $2,025 +$39 +2%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May May 21 $16 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,192 +$12 +1%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 18 $96 +$2 +2%
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 18 $5 $0 +1%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 18 $590 +$3 +0%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $603 +$12 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $207 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 99¢ $25 6m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $98 7m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 97¢ $97 7m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 95¢ $5 8m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 95¢ $15 8m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 95¢ $2 8m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 95¢ $51 8m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 100¢ $200 9m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 100¢ $199 13m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $91 15m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $34 16m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $57 16m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 86¢ $86 19m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 86¢ $0 19m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $221 25m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 25m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 26m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 28m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 28m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $199 31m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 33m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $260 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $28 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $288 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $85 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 6h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 6h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,253.07 · official $4,252.77 (match) · 2053 history records