Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8e86…bb28 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$53 (+5%) realized +$21 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$146
other 36% +$89
sports 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.7% -12.8% 60% 60% +11.5%
≤30d 15 -3.7% -12.8% 60% 60% +11.5%
≤90d 15 -3.7% -12.8% 60% 60% +11.5%
all 15 -3.7% -12.8% 60% 60% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 60% +11.5%
10% -21.2% 47% +0.9%
15% -28.8% 27% -8.9%
20% -35.8% 27% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$17 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage127d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $199 $231 +$32 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$54 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $148 +$46 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$32 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $119 +$22 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $65 +$19 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $81 +$15 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $52 +$35 +67%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $96 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $106 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $87 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $173 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $66 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $52 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.75 · official $230.75 (match) · 51 history records