Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8E 0x8e86…8bb9 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$6
other 22% $0
sports 15% $0
politics 14% +$4
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+63.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +166.7% +141.3% 50% 8% -8.5%
all 25 +81.2% +63.9% 48% 8% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +63.9% 8% -8.0%
10% +48.2% 8% -16.8%
15% +33.9% 4% -24.8%
20% +20.8% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +154% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.91 per $1 lost it wins $6.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage477d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $4 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $7 $0 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -14%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $91 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $26 +$5 +20%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $7 $0 -0%
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez applaud during Trump's address to Congre Mar 03 $17 +$4 +23%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Trump say 'Gulf of America' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Eastern Kentucky vs. Jacksonville Mar 03 $18 $0 -2%
Eastern Washington vs. Montana Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $42 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $20 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 30d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 31d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 31d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $18 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $18 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.10 · official $46.44 (match) · 74 history records