Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8E 0x8e86…7932 sports 1527 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 322d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,170 (+2%) realized +$1,157 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%702W / 816L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$450est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$431
7 days−$166
14 days−$16
30 days+$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$491
other 3% +$230
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -10.3% -18.8% 36% 34% -13.7%
≤30d 217 -5.3% -14.3% 41% 41% -6.4%
≤90d 1194 -28.2% -35.0% 32% 31% -23.9%
all 1518 +3.5% -6.3% 46% 46% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 46% -8.3%
10% -15.3% 44% -17.0%
15% -23.5% 39% -25.1%
20% -31.0% 34% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$1,157
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses702 / 816
Est. fees paid−$450
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1518 / 1527
History coverage322d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1518 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $57 $65 +$8 (+15%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $24 $33 +$9 (+39%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $25 −$17 -71%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$46 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$185 +181%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $105 +$126 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$11 -44%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$53 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$9 -57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $21 +$30 +140%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$32 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $47 +$55 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $23 +$28 +119%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $53 +$49 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $39 +$64 +165%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $73 +$40 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 33m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $30 33m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 37m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 38m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $81 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 7¢ $7 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $286 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $16 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 23h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 23¢ $25 26h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $41 26h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $50 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $51 26h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $20 33h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $71 33h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $14 33h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 36h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 36h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $31 36h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $31 44h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $31 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $57 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.43 · official $292.43 (match) · 3464 history records