Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8E 0x8e88…550a crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$141 (+54%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$126
other 11% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +56.6% +41.7% 43% 43% +18.6%
≤30d 28 +56.6% +41.7% 43% 43% +18.6%
≤90d 28 +56.6% +41.7% 43% 43% +18.6%
all 28 +56.6% +41.7% 43% 43% +18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.7% 43% +18.6%
10% +28.1% 43% +7.3%
15% +15.7% 43% -3.1%
20% +4.4% 32% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +122% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$161 +3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.98 (match) · 50 history records