Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e88…b235 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,974 (+2%) realized +$807 · open +$1,167
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,354per market
Trades / day94.4pace
Fees−$1,051est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$20,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$7,211
other 10% +$2,094
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 67% 67% -2.3%
≤30d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 67% 67% -2.3%
≤90d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 67% 67% -2.3%
all 24 +9.0% -1.4% 67% 67% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 67% -2.3%
10% -10.8% 67% -11.7%
15% ← realistic here -19.4% 54% -20.2%
20% -27.3% 46% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$6,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,489 vs −$3,961 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20,523
Realized+$807
Unrealized+$1,167
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,051
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4,354
Trades / day94.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Brandon Nakashima 80¢ 95¢ $9,885 $11,641 +$1,755 (+18%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 64¢ 84¢ $4,996 $6,596 +$1,600 (+32%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 65¢ 64¢ $2,338 $2,284 −$54 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) Djokovic 51¢ $2,137 $2 −$2,135 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Jun 29 $5,031 +$1,252 +25%
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $2,551 +$2,278 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5,574 +$4,415 +79%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $3,092 −$3,042 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $13,607 +$4,993 +37%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $8,402 +$5,206 +62%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom Jun 29 $3,436 −$3,423 -100%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas Jun 28 $6,074 −$6,002 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $5,513 +$4,026 +73%
ITF Claremont: Spencer Johnson vs Sasha Rozin Jun 28 $10 +$5 +46%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $1,005 −$995 -99%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Jun 28 $3,372 +$3,160 +94%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $2,589 +$790 +30%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Branko Djuric vs Andrea De Marchi Jun 28 $1,519 +$1,072 +71%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $12,260 −$12,229 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $2,030 −$2,000 -98%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings Jun 28 $9,716 +$5,995 +62%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $1,401 +$942 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $1,011 −$994 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,045 −$3,000 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,028 +$1,672 +82%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand Jun 27 $6,295 +$2,012 +32%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $2,531 +$1,687 +67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $314 +$317 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $2,363 14m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 100¢ $6,283 16m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 79¢ $5,031 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar SELL Solana Sierra 100¢ $4,830 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 52¢ $2,536 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 56¢ $15 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $364 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $13 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $13 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $13 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $45 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $5 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $51 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $13 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $13 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $14 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $104 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $138 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $364 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $214 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $31 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $48 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $39 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $13 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $13 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $13 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $31 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $312 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $31 2h
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5) BUY Djokovic 51¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,523.01 · official $20,523.01 (match) · 218 history records