Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e89…5ec5 other 194 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$371 (-9%) realized −$391 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%61W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$342
14 days−$415
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$240
sports 48% −$132
crypto 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -19.6% -27.2% 33% 31% -18.9%
≤30d 184 -21.7% -29.2% 33% 32% -20.1%
≤90d 184 -21.7% -29.2% 33% 32% -20.1%
all 184 -21.7% -29.2% 33% 32% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 32% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 30% -27.8%
15% -42.2% 27% -34.7%
20% -47.8% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized−$391
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses61 / 123
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions10
Markets (closed)184 / 194
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+70%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 72¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 24 $41 +$38 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 +$25 +124%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $31 +$58 +191%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $31 +$102 +332%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$40 +197%
England vs. Ghana: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$6 -58%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 $0 +1%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 +$19 +93%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$19 -94%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$18 +90%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $20 +$60 +291%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$12 -60%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$66 +324%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$13 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +30%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$19 +95%
France vs. Iraq: Team to Take First Corner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$19 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 11h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 26¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 30¢ $20 12h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 12h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 12h
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $10 12h
Panama vs. Croatia: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $41 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 12h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 12h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 12h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 12h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 12h
England vs. Ghana: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $41 12h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 13h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 13h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals SELL Yes 11¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 13h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 13h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 14h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.40 · official $456.40 (match) · 312 history records