Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e8a…c8d6 politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,226 (+1%) realized +$1,224 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 117L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,395per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$163
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$99
other 42% +$64
sports 8% +$1,294
world 3% −$45
economics 2% −$12
culture 2% −$5
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -11.5% -20.0% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 83 -13.4% -21.6% 5% 1% -8.9%
all 142 -3.0% -12.3% 18% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 8% -9.0%
10% -20.6% 8% -17.7%
15% -28.3% 8% -25.6%
20% -35.3% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,695) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$8 · ×10.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized+$1,224
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,395
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $336 $337 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,137 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,874 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $942 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $908 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $2,173 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,282 −$3 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $162 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,876 −$4 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $709 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,194 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $4,167 −$4 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,437 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,572 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,528 −$3 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,826 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $2,355 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $3,828 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $1,479 −$9 -1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $670 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $671 3h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $548 26h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $549 27h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $864 29h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $865 31h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $762 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $763 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $750 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $751 3d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $874 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $876 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $336 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,078 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,080 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $962 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $964 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $941 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $942 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $910 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $911 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $907 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $908 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $849 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $850 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,057 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 13d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $64 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.09 · official $337.09 (match) · 433 history records