Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e8d…1af3 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+3%) realized +$50 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$125
other 7% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -19.4% -27.0% 60% 47% -14.6%
≤30d 15 -19.4% -27.0% 60% 47% -14.6%
≤90d 15 -19.4% -27.0% 60% 47% -14.6%
all 15 -19.4% -27.0% 60% 47% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 47% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 33% -22.7%
15% -40.4% 20% -30.2%
20% -46.2% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$46 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $208 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $307 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $206 −$39 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $211 +$101 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$21 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$23 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $92 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $111 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $120 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $159 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $63 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $104 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $150 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $190 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $117 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $32 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $29 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $23 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.04 (match) · 49 history records