Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e8d…acc4 other 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,202 (-6%) realized −$4,332 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%63W / 168L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$7,356
sports 3% −$1
world 0% −$30
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -94.3% -94.9% 3% 0% -52.6%
≤30d 99 -68.5% -71.5% 16% 12% +6.8%
≤90d 222 -48.6% -53.5% 28% 23% -18.5%
all 231 -50.6% -55.3% 27% 22% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.3% 22% -18.6%
10% -59.6% 19% -26.4%
15% -63.5% 16% -33.5%
20% -67.1% 12% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -37% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$182 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$1,356
Realized−$4,332
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses63 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions6
Markets (closed)231 / 237
History coverage137d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $623 $720 +$97 (+16%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 62¢ 66¢ $465 $499 +$34 (+7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 66¢ $131 $134 +$3 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Over 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 6.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,907 −$1,330 -70%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,541 +$59 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $437 +$113 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,325 +$176 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 10m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 20m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 23m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 25m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 27m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 59m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $38 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $232 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $279 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $66 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $66 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $75 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $465 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 3¢ $4 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 74¢ $91 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 74¢ $17 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 74¢ $118 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 74¢ $27 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 74¢ $6 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $92 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $3 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $5 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $152 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 72¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,356.06 · official $1,356.06 (match) · 1709 history records