Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e8f…870e sports 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$67 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate39%133W / 211L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day107.9pace
Fees−$585est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4,425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$90
sports 42% −$1
crypto 3% −$25
world 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -72.8% -75.4% 11% 2% -55.2%
≤30d 331 -31.9% -38.4% 37% 10% -34.5%
≤90d 344 -30.5% -37.1% 39% 12% -33.7%
all 344 -30.5% -37.1% 39% 12% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.1% 12% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -43.1% 7% -40.1%
15% -48.6% 6% -45.9%
20% -53.7% 5% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -88% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$43 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$4,425
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses133 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$585
Open positions10
Markets (closed)344 / 197
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$188
Trades / day107.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 52¢ 52¢ $3,802 $3,784 −$18 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 37¢ 36¢ $148 $146 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 34¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $74 $80 +$5 (+7%)
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-03-07? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+160%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 43¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 32¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-23%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 178 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Pitstop crew vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - Exort Ser Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Z7 Esports (BO1) - Parken Challenger Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Two Move (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cu Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs The Suspect (BO3) - XPortal Closed Qualifier Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs MANA eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ALKA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: ImmuNe vs AaB Esport (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champio Jun 21 $53 −$53 -99%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs ELITEN (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champion Jun 21 $136 −$136 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG EQUIPA (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs Brute (BO3) - United21 Playoff Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Aorus League Brazil On Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cu Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #4 Play Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Solary vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 21 $163 −$163 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #4 Group A Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Rare Atom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League A Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Persona Grata vs Bebop (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: LAG Gaming vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs AaB Esport (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Gam Jun 21 $390 −$390 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs BIG EQUIPA (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FC Famalicão Esports vs Project 91 (BO1) - ESEA Advanc Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Jun 21 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Lilmix (BO3) - XPortal Closed Qualifier Group Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA fe vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Infinite (BO1) - Esplay Elite Gaming Group A Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: New Meta vs RAYN Clocks (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 21 $290 −$291 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Seri Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legion vs Boring Players (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Pl Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ImmuNe vs WAZABI (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championshi Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Acend (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs Wingman (BO3) - Exort Series Main Sta Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cu Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $81 8m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $47 39m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $119 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $29 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $59 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $19 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $53 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $8 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $21 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $16 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $19 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $39 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $30 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 30¢ $53 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $26 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,424.98 · official $4,423.92 (match) · 3500 history records