Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8e91…3335 crypto 58 markets active 6h ago coverage 153d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$12,201 (+148%) realized +$12,130 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +239% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +195% what you keep after slip
Net edge+195%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%12W / 40L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$976
7 days−$4,049
14 days+$11,774
30 days+$11,988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$12,423
economics 8% −$33
tech 7% −$456
finance 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+207.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -90.0% -91.0% 3% 0% -81.8%
≤30d 51 +244.7% +211.9% 24% 22% +92.1%
≤90d 51 +244.7% +211.9% 24% 22% +92.1%
all 52 +239.3% +207.0% 23% 21% +85.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +207.0% 21% +85.8%
10% +177.6% 21% +68.0%
15% +150.8% 21% +51.8%
20% +126.2% 21% +36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +159% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +239% · $-wt +149% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +567% → late -89% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,408 vs −$126 · ×11.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$12,130
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses12 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 58
History coverage153d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $216 $303 +$87 (+40%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $48 $82 +$34 (+72%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-69%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? No 0¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $761 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $233 −$206 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $668 −$595 -89%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $39 −$12 -31%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $356 −$293 -82%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $131 −$128 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $25 −$22 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $509 −$509 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $264 −$264 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $393 −$370 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $217 −$211 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $70 −$59 -84%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$13 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $438 −$438 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $242 −$242 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $680 +$5,314 +781%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $58 +$1,037 +1787%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$1,051 +2204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $25 +$1,473 +5878%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $116 +$757 +654%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $36 +$1,060 +2978%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $22 −$6 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $79 +$762 +960%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $61 +$1,474 +2421%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $16 −$5 -31%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $10 −$5 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $37 +$2,562 +6925%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $73 +$1,162 +1594%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $17 −$2 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $648 −$543 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $159 −$158 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $34 −$31 -91%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $14 −$12 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 1¢ $7 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 1¢ $43 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $20 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $30 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $126 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $165 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $176 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $112 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 9¢ $94 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 9¢ $3 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 9¢ $5 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 9¢ $9 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 8¢ $27 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 8¢ $89 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? BUY No 0¢ $9 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $19 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $1 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $24 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $4 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $0 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.56 · official $399.56 (match) · 587 history records