Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e96…0344 other 21 markets active 23h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-24%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$11
crypto 5% −$5
sports 4% −$4
world 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.2% -26.9% 48% 48% -34.5%
≤30d 21 -19.2% -26.9% 48% 48% -34.5%
≤90d 21 -19.2% -26.9% 48% 48% -34.5%
all 21 -19.2% -26.9% 48% 48% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 48% -34.5%
10% -33.9% 48% -40.8%
15% -40.3% 43% -46.5%
20% -46.1% 24% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$5 -34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records