Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e99…6ec3 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 860d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-7%) realized −$27 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$30
14 days−$41
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$255
sports 14% +$34
crypto 11% +$24
tech 3% +$97
politics 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 38% +6.6%
≤30d 21 -3.1% -12.3% 38% 38% -9.4%
≤90d 22 -7.5% -16.3% 36% 36% -9.7%
all 52 -32.3% -38.8% 33% 33% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 33% -14.0%
10% -44.6% 29% -22.2%
15% -50.0% 25% -29.7%
20% -54.9% 17% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

860d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 62
History coverage860d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $176 $151 −$25 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $125 −$25 (-17%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $40 $21 −$19 (-46%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 26¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) Jun 26 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 +$80 +197%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $85 −$83 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $2 +$11 +525%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $39 +$86 +221%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $7 +$7 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $134 +$51 +38%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? Jan 09 $1 +$1 +54%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-12-09? Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB all time high by December 31? Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-11-04? Nov 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana all time high before 2026? Oct 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win UEFA Group G for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Oct 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands U21 beat Ukraine U21? Jul 20 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +127%
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-04? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 04 $1 $0 +44%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? Jan 05 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? Dec 01 $0 $0 +47%
Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? Nov 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate? Oct 02 $0 $0 -100%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Sep 11 $3 −$3 -100%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Sep 11 $3 $0 +14%
Will Netherlands win? Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? Jul 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on May 10? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Ethereum above $3,500 on April 5? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $195 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $11 29h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) SELL No 99¢ $11 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 12¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland vs BUY 24¢ $17 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 86¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a BUY 15¢ $26 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Aust BUY $6 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia BUY 19¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $85 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $58 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $177 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $83 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.25 · official $297.54 (match) · 127 history records