Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e9c…f277 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$309 (-13%) realized −$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate69%34W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$334
14 days−$323
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$189
weather 28% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -16.1% -24.1% 67% 11% -26.4%
≤30d 49 -15.0% -23.1% 69% 10% -21.6%
≤90d 49 -15.0% -23.1% 69% 10% -21.6%
all 49 -15.0% -23.1% 69% 10% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 10% -21.6%
10% -30.5% 8% -29.1%
15% -37.2% 6% -35.9%
20% -43.3% 4% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$33 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses34 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage7d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$72 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $80 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $116 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$27 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $309 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL Yes 98¢ $110 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records