Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e9e…38e4
other · 696 markets active 20h ago
0.0score
−$375,894 -50%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$340,762 · open +$576
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17,794
Realized−$340,762
Unrealized+$576
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses33 / 601
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1,096
Open positions376
Markets (closed)634 / 696
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,079
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 376 History 634 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37,192
7 days−$37,192
14 days−$39,808
30 days−$39,808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 99¢ $1,020 $5,069 +$4,049 (+397%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 50¢ 78¢ $742 $1,160 +$417 (+56%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 60¢ $36 $595 +$559 (+1566%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 34¢ $10 $509 +$499 (+5008%)
Will Trump deport 400-500k people? Yes 6¢ 46¢ $54 $446 +$392 (+719%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 44¢ $500 $435 −$65 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 82¢ $250 $412 +$162 (+65%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $500 $405 −$95 (-19%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $12 $345 +$333 (+2876%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 12¢ 34¢ $125 $345 +$220 (+176%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $10 $342 +$332 (+3330%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 15¢ $6 $226 +$220 (+3722%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 15¢ $7 $226 +$219 (+3334%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 15¢ $6 $218 +$212 (+3595%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $62 $215 +$153 (+248%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 17¢ $15 $212 +$197 (+1326%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $21 $201 +$180 (+863%)
Will Trump deport 300-400k people? Yes 6¢ 19¢ $54 $186 +$132 (+242%)
Will Trump deport 500-600k people? Yes 6¢ 19¢ $54 $184 +$130 (+238%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 7¢ 37¢ $34 $178 +$144 (+419%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 12¢ 18¢ $125 $175 +$50 (+40%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 16¢ $30 $155 +$125 (+412%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $21 $136 +$115 (+551%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 9¢ $6 $131 +$125 (+2148%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 7¢ 27¢ $34 $131 +$97 (+282%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$34 +3013%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 12 $1 +$16 +2200%
Exact Score: Cambodia 2 - 0 Hong Kong SAR? Jun 12 $1 +$16 +1600%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 13 Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Jun 12 $150 +$2,074 +1382%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June? Jun 12 $486 −$548 -113%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 29 Jun 12 $164 −$242 -148%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 20 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $1,401 −$36,356 -2595%
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on December 17 Jun 12 $319 −$319 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 24? Jun 12 $485 −$485 -100%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $167 −$3,549 -2130%
Will Li Gong (CHN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be George Simion? Jun 12 $15 −$20 -136%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 12 $350 −$295 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 8 Jun 12 $100 −$131 -130%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jun 12 $40 +$75 +188%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 12 $494 −$619 -125%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
Will Darius Labanauskas win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $868 −$940 -108%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $306 +$1,148 +375%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 5 Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Jun 12 $125 +$344 +275%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 1 Jun 12 $169 −$333 -197%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $60 +$217 +361%
Will Lehigh win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jun 12 $176 −$127 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 12 $13 −$17 -128%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27? Jun 12 $70 +$237 +337%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on December 15 Jun 12 $323 −$491 -152%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times April 4 - 11? Jun 12 $163 −$214 -131%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $193 −$149 -77%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $221 −$246 -111%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Super Bowl LX have between 116M and 120M viewers? Jun 12 $72 −$99 -138%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $302 −$675 -224%
Exact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 1 - 3 Samsunspor? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 12 $-2 +$2 —%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 12 $10 −$10 -102%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $8 −$9 -112%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 12 $229 −$229 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jun 12 $227 −$543 -239%
Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14? Jun 12 $28 −$70 -250%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 9 Jun 12 $413 −$421 -102%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $2,231 −$2,686 -120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 57% −$113,216
sports 18% −$65,166
other 14% −$50,001
politics 7% −$50,076
tech 2% −$12,634
world 1% −$9,885
culture 0% −$1,493
weather 0% −$523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $2 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $5 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $5 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $5 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-70.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +6.5% -3.6% 10% 10% -84.6%
≤30d 115 +37.0% +23.9% 17% 17% -63.9%
≤90d 625 -66.8% -70.0% 4% 4% -89.2%
all 625 -66.8% -70.0% 4% 4% -89.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -70.0% 4% -89.2%
10% -72.8% 3% -90.3%
15% ← realistic here -75.5% 3% -91.2%
20% -77.9% 3% -92.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,794.41 · official $17,794.58 (match) · 3500 history records