Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8e9f…51a8 world 45 markets active 10h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$2
politics 21% +$1
other 13% −$1
economics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 18 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 6% -9.2%
all 44 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage325d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +61%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 11? Aug 11 $12 $0 +0%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 11 $4 $0 -8%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $62 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $2 $0 +4%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $41 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $41 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $14 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $24 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $44 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $45 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $44 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $18 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.59 · official $0.00 · 135 history records