Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea1…c38e other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,026 (-9%) realized −$3,287 · open −$2,739
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%48W / 80L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days−$8,386
14 days−$4,725
30 days−$2,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$2,843
other 17% −$3,100
sports 11% −$57
world 3% −$585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -40.0% -45.7% 20% 20% -58.6%
≤30d 101 -21.9% -29.3% 30% 29% -20.3%
≤90d 128 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 34% -15.4%
all 128 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 34% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 34% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 30% -23.5%
15% -37.4% 27% -30.9%
20% -43.6% 22% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +34% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$223 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2,639
Realized−$3,287
Unrealized−$2,739
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses48 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions33
Markets (closed)128 / 145
History coverage72d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $350 $478 +$128 (+37%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 63¢ 54¢ $541 $459 −$82 (-15%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $315 $382 +$68 (+21%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $265 $267 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $161 $154 −$7 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 34¢ $126 $100 −$26 (-20%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Under 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $75 $81 +$6 (+8%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $30 −$70 (-70%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,356 $20 −$1,336 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $314 $8 −$305 (-97%)
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1,007 $3 −$1,004 (-100%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $203 +$157 +78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $163 +$78 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $136 +$144 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $155 −$152 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $127 −$126 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$105 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $152 +$35 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $155 −$153 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $64 +$305 +473%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $700 −$684 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $399 +$181 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $423 −$418 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $267 −$261 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 −$35 -52%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Jun 16 $557 −$239 -43%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $347 −$347 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jorge Nieto win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 16 $151 −$151 -100%
Spread: Italy (-2.5) Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $157 −$157 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $203 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $203 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $69 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $163 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $155 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 63¢ $127 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $100 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $29 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $53 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $7 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 5¢ $50 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $102 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $155 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $370 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $700 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $107 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $423 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $267 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $64 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 4d
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 9¢ $32 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 50¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,639.36 · official $2,639.36 (match) · 1731 history records