Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea3…e25c crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-6%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$41
crypto 7% −$4
sports 0% +$13
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +3.5% -6.4% 35% 31% -11.8%
≤30d 62 +3.5% -6.4% 35% 31% -11.8%
≤90d 62 +3.5% -6.4% 35% 31% -11.8%
all 62 +3.5% -6.4% 35% 31% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 31% -11.8%
10% -15.3% 21% -20.2%
15% -23.5% 16% -27.9%
20% -31.0% 11% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage115d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $200 +$79 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $30 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -86%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $18 −$7 -38%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $303 −$285 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $305 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$2 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $240 +$68 +28%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 $0 -31%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 23 $1 $0 -14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $116 +$123 +106%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$11 +511%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$24 +1119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $279 39m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 52m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $92 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 66¢ $18 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 63¢ $18 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $303 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $303 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $305 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records