Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea4…77f3 crypto 562 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$312 (+2%) realized +$606 · open −$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%306W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$105
14 days+$75
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$228
other 3% −$191
sports 0% −$15
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.1% -14.1% 61% 50% +24.8%
≤30d 433 -8.3% -17.0% 53% 45% -10.5%
≤90d 509 -6.1% -15.0% 54% 47% -10.2%
all 559 -6.0% -15.0% 55% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 47% -10.3%
10% -23.1% 40% -18.9%
15% -30.5% 35% -26.7%
20% -37.3% 28% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$294
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses306 / 253
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)559 / 562
History coverage93d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? No 81¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$19 +61%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -85%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$8 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 08 $32 −$26 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 05 $22 +$16 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $32 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 02 $90 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 02 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 81¢ $241 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL No 89¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 91¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.34 (match) · 1896 history records