Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea4…2109 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 27% −$5
sports 17% −$57
economics 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 96 -2.6% -11.9% 7% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage131d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $152 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $425 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $272 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $395 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $307 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $142 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 03 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $158 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 01 $268 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $149 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $484 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $277 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $330 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $247 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 29 $161 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 20h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 22d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 24d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 26d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $119 36d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $119 37d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $19 63d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $149 64d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $149 65d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $131 65d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $131 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $110 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $110 66d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $146 66d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $146 66d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $148 67d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $148 67d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $132 67d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $132 67d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $122 67d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $122 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.97 · official $25.97 (match) · 278 history records