Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8E 0x8eaa…857d other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$1
culture 17% $0
other 15% +$1
world 15% −$5
crypto 13% −$2
sports 1% +$2
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 +4.4% -5.6% 57% 21% -9.8%
≤90d 18 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 28% -10.1%
all 19 -7.9% -16.6% 53% 26% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 26% -10.3%
10% -24.6% 26% -18.9%
15% -31.9% 16% -26.7%
20% -38.6% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage121d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $81 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -53%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 18 $6 $0 +3%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $81 −$2 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 21 $2 +$1 +65%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $0 54m
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $82 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $13 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $67 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $53 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 82¢ $95 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 9d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $53 9d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $95 9d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 9d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 87¢ $38 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $56 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $79 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $76 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $39 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 20d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 72¢ $2 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 37d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 37d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 73¢ $2 37d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $1 53d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 53d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.06 · official $188.07 (match) · 81 history records