Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8eab…a56d
other · 131 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$8,728 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,479 · open +$400
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$25,084
Realized+$8,479
Unrealized+$400
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses58 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions37
Markets (closed)116 / 131
Avg bet$3,532
Trades / day119.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 37 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,279
7 days−$2,271
14 days−$7,154
30 days+$8,479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $7,500 $11,512 +$4,012 (+54%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 71¢ $192 $3,552 +$3,360 (+1747%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $7,500 $3,488 −$4,012 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $192 $1,325 +$1,133 (+589%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $192 $1,175 +$983 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $192 $1,075 +$883 (+459%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $192 $925 +$733 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $192 $675 +$483 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $192 $425 +$233 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $192 $292 +$100 (+52%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $195 $183 −$13 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $192 $112 −$80 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $192 $88 −$105 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $187 $57 −$130 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $138 $38 −$100 (-73%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $194 $30 −$164 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $182 $28 −$154 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $164 $26 −$138 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $12 −$180 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $8 −$185 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $203 $5 −$198 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $177 $5 −$171 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$11 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,259 −$49 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $697 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$9 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$15 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $659 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1,474 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $287 +$53 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$7 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $33 +$8 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,222 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$13 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $31 −$25 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $13 −$8 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$9 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $11,341 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5,983 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$3 -18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$13 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $37 −$22 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4,906 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $26,043 +$19 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,723 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1,121 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $177 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $116 −$35 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $167 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3,195 +$8,089 +253%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$42 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$7 +1070%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $80 −$33 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $42 −$9 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $73 −$37 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $22,190 +$32 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $248 −$223 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% +$13,084
politics 19% −$4,012
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 57m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -22.3% -29.7% 40% 10% -12.2%
≤30d 116 +48.5% +34.3% 50% 22% -7.5%
≤90d 116 +48.5% +34.3% 50% 22% -7.5%
all 116 +48.5% +34.3% 50% 22% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover119.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.3% 22% -7.5%
10% +21.5% 21% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here +9.8% 17% -24.5%
20% -1.0% 17% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,084.18 · official $25,084.19 (match) · 3500 history records